Saturday, July 11, 2009

The 'Incredibility-vs-Evidence' Index

Among the things that trouble me about us, and I mean, we the people, is how we demand as little proof as a claim is tall. One would expect that the more fabulous an assertion by someone is, the more we'd demand in the way of irrefutable evidence. Strangely it isn't so, and here are the examples in ascending order of the claim's incredibility (and in decreasing order of the evidence to back it.)

1. Interpersonal love/loyalty/devotion : Interpersonal love/loyalty/devotion are the ones that are the hardest earned, and therefore most expensive in terms of evidence needed to prove the claim. History and literature is rife with accounts of men/women sacrificing their life and limb for love. Once you throw in Helen, Cleo et. al, interpersonal love seems to be most demanding in terms of supporting evidence, even in the stuff of legends.

2. Employee's Competence : Barring a few exceptions, employees are expected to back their competence with performance, sometimes having to jump through hoops to establish it.

3. A General's Competence (esp. by a subordinate): Well, in this case, you don't get to ask for any proof of competence despite that you are going to die if the general is soft in the head. For those under a general's command, "their's not to reason why, their's but to do and die."

4. Company's Statements of Integrity and Social Responsibility: Evidence for this, when given (most often grudgingly) is suspicious at best and dubious at worst. However, a gamut of audits and detailed documentation pushes it up on the amount of evidence provided.

5. A Politician's promises to his Electorate: Whole nations and people are affected by the fidelity of these claims and even so, we ask so little in the way of evidence for the sincerity of their intent. We are swayed more by rhetoric rather than reason, sometimes electing inept governments back to power, swept by nationalist, religious and other populist fervour.

6. Nationalistic Pride: A belief that your country is superior to all others and more worthy of your devotion, and the world's resources simply because you were born in it.

7. UFOs: Incredible as claims of UFO sightings seem, I am pegging this slightly low on the 'incredibility' index than you'd have me do, since (as I have written before) ETs are vastly more probable than some of those to follow in the list.

8. Astrology - Zodiac - Almanac - Crystal Balls: An implicit belief in that there is such a thing as destiny and that it can be foretold. For the last time, the fancy math and counting that some strains of astrology employ is not empirical evidence!

9. Miracle Cures: Strangely, the efficacy of these is proportional to the faith you have in them. However, there are no reported cures of limbs miraculously having been grown back yet. They only seem to specialise in cancers and tumors for now.

10. Divine benevolent omnipotent omniscient and other omni* entity, talking snakes, Satan, Virgin Birth, resurrection, armageddon...