Monday, October 19, 2009

Proximity-TOA Correlation

I think I just may have chanced upon a law from empirical observation, much like say Moore's law
or Murphy's law.

The observation is as follows:
"The farther a member of a rendezvous party is from the rendezvous point, the earlier he/she is
likely to arrive there before the others."

A plausible explanation I have as to why this prediction turns out true much more often than not
is because people farther off from a rendezvous point will make an effort to leave much earlier
than necessary so as to give themselves a buffer against any unexpected delays on the long way
to the rendezvous point.

The negation of this statement also holds good. People who are closer to the rendezvous point
tend to start later reassured by the fact that the rendezvous point is close by after all and
are unlikely to be delayed by any unexpected events. Unexpected events are by their very nature
rare, thus both the precaution as well as the lack of any guard against it seldom turns out to
be a factor in the arrival time.

Also note that this does not conflict the normal distribution of arrival times that is to be
expected in such cases. My proposition merely relates the proximity of the person arriving
the rendezvous point to how much closer or farther his time of arrival is from the median of
the bell curve distribution.

The correlation of this law is as high as the following factors are
relevant:

a) the formalism involved in the meeting/rendezvous (i.e. more applicable to a board meeting
than an informal party)

b) infrequency of the meeting (i.e. more often the meeting's repetition, lower the correlation)

The reason why both these factors will affect the correlation is obvious.

Hence, to put it succinctly, the early bird is the one farthest from the worm.

1 comments:

Channa said...

Damn!.. No wonder i was late to so many first hours staying in F hostel rather than E.:P.. But then i ain't RCB to foresee wats coming..:)